Is decision looming for the future of the program?

The UCF Knights scheduled basketball season came to an end in an inspired loss to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament. Sure, there could still be some basketball left for the Knights to play (NIT or Crown, anybody?), but ostensibly the season is over. And what a season it was, almost, for the Knights. A hot start early, injuries to key players, late season losing streak, and some grit and fight at the very end. If that recipe sounds familiar, it’s because that has basically become the blueprint for UCF basketball over the past few years. But what will become of this basketball program in the future, and how will they get there? 

As we sit here today it is impossible to think about the future of UCF Basketball without discussing the fate of current head coach Johnny Dawkins. Closing out his ninth year at UCF, Dawkins has compiled a 165-119 record, which includes only one NCAA tournament berth, and no conference titles. This is juxtaposed with Johnny Dawkins the person, who has been lauded by his players as a great coach, anointed by his peers as a basketball legend, and respected by the basketball community as somebody who does things the right way. Unfortunately for Dawkins, the ledger doesn’t include a nice guy column to go along with wins and losses, and because of that, UCF administration has a decision on their hands.

Before we examine the future of Johnny Dawkins, or any potential replacement coach, we cannot ignore the infrastructure of UCF basketball. Although tough to fully validate exact figures, it has been mentioned by many that UCF is on the lower end of the Big 12 schools in NIL budget. Social media will also show you that the Knights team will sometimes travel via commercial airlines to games, and while in and of itself not a horrible thing, it appears to be an exception amongst the majority of Big 12 schools. All of this is to say, the bank accounts are not equal, and whether you think that is a factor in results or not, it can’t be ignored in this equation.  

Moving forward, it would seem that UCF Athletics Director Terry Mohajir will have a choice to make, and if I’ve learned anything over the past few weeks, it’s that none of us knows exactly what is going on in his mind. But, I think there are a few different scenarios that can be selected as the future path:

Option 1 – Keep things as-is

Essentially this is the “run it back” option. Johnny Dawkins remains as head coach under his current contract and builds out a roster in 2025-26 in the similar way he has done the last two seasons. This probably means that NIL will continue to put UCF on the lower end of the Big 12, but the addition of the rev-share model creates some unknowns. As with every school, UCF will have to determine how much to fund for each sport, assuming they have a full boat of money to dole out. Either way, this option assumes that UCF will stay at or near its current funding level, thus leveraging the same blueprint from the past few seasons

Option 2 – Up the investment, not the coach

With homage to one of my wife’s favorite TV shows, I’ll call this the No Demo Reno approach. This would have Terry Mohajir keeping Johnny Dawkins under his current contract, but deciding to make some additional investments in the overall program. Those investments could be any combination of NIL, rev-share, coaching staff, support staff, etc. This option would signal that UCF feels that Dawkins is the right coach at this time, but come to the realization that they need to react to the current landscape. Something to keep in mind, the Orlando Sentinel has reported that the buyout for terminating Johnny Dawkins before the end of his contract decreases with each year, including to zero for the 2025-26 season. This option could serve as a final litmus test to the Dawkins/UCF marriage.

Option 3 – New coach, same concept

I’ll call this the lightning in a bottle option. In this scenario Johnny Dawkins would exit UCF and Terry Mohajir would hire a new coach to the lead the Knights. However, based on the constraints and complexities I shared earlier, UCF would not make any significant changes to the overall program investment. In essence, this would be Mohajir saying that he wants a new voice leading UCF, and/or, a new philosophy in roster management and player development. One concern with this option would be the attractiveness of this job for coaches if there is no guarantee for an investment commitment. This might force UCF to set their sights on a younger or unproven coach and hope they find a diamond in the rough (an example of this would be FAU hiring Dusty May). This approach could garner some short term success if the right coach is hired, but it will also likely make that same coach extremely poachable by the bigger name schools. 

Option 4 – Blow it all up

I’ll call this the “new phone who dis option”, because everything change. UCF will decide to go in a new direction at head coach, and to attract the best, will guarantee improvements throughout the infrastructure of the program. To make this work, UCF will need to have some generous donations or booster backing, and a commit to support through rev-share and whatever remains of NIL. There are those on the internet who have already begun to connect the dots between known UCF supporter Mike Repole and some folks with St. Johns University ties (Repole’s alma mater and another school he supports). Whatever the connections, if this path is chosen it will represent that UCF has chosen to try to be more competitive in the world of Big 12 basketball.

Option 5 – Self selection

To quote the great Kelly Taylor of 90210 fame, I’ll call this the “I choose me” option. In this scenario, Johnny Dawkins decides of his own volition to walk away from UCF. While there hasn’t been any specific information to point in this direction, it’s not hard to see a scenario where Dawkins wants to control his own fate and coach on his terms. We’ve seen several coaches walk away in recent years due to changing landscape in college sports, and it’s not inconceivable that Dawkins would take a similar path. Let’s not forget that outside of UCF, Johnny Dawkins is a revered name in the game of basketball. He could probably find opportunities in and around the game, be it as an analyst on TV, in an NBA setting, or even as an advisor to other college programs.  

If, and again, it’s still an if, the UCF job opens, and the right support is guaranteed, I do think this could be one of the more attractive jobs available. The Big 12 is arguably the top conference in college basketball, Florida is a talent rich state for basketball prospects, and living in Orlando doesn’t suck. UCF is the lone Big 12 flag in the State of Florida, and if the right strategy can be formed to keep kids playing in the sunshine, the potential for growth could be realized quickly. 

However, regardless of whoever is standing on the sideline next season, the question remains: will Knight Nation show up and support this program? There is tangible evidence to suggest that a packed Addition Financial Arena can provide UCF a home-court advantage against even some of the toughest of foes. If the fans are mad enough about basketball to demand change, hopefully they’ll means they are willing to put their butts in seats if they get their wish.