Big Stage, Little Apple UCF travels to Kansas State in their first Big 12 conference game.
n week three #PicksAllKnight went 3-2, and we find ourselves sitting at 13-7 on the season. If you like my picks (and more importantly like making money) subscribe to the Sons of UCF and give me a follow on X (Twitter) at _AllKnight_
Here’s a recap of my week 3 picks!
#14 LSU Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Wager: Mississippi State (+10).
Final: LSU 41, Mississippi St 14.
#15 Kansas State Wildcats @ Missouri Tigers
Wager: Kansas State (-4.5).
Final: Missouri 30, Kansas State 27.
#8 Washington Huskies @ Michigan State Spartans
Wager: Washington (-16).
Final: Washington 41, Michigan State 7.
Villanova Wildcats @ UCF Knights
Wager: Take the over, any number. (Total points over 58).
Final: UCF 48, Villanova 14.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Houston Cougars
Wager: TCU (-7).
Final: TCU 36, Houston 13.
Making Moves Picks Records
Week 3: 3-2 (60%)
Season: 13-7 (65%)
Week 3: 6-7 (46.2%)
Season: 20-21 (48.8%)
Week 3 Official Picks
#16 Oklahoma Sooners @ Cincinnati Bearcats
My Pick: Oklahoma (-13.5)
This Saturday will mark Cincinnati’s first game in the Big 12, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nippert Stadium rocking following their appearance on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff. The Bearcats welcome a familiar face in Dillon Gabriel of the Oklahoma Sooners. The last time DG played in Nippert Stadium, he was a true freshman playing for UCF in 2019. In true freshman fashion, DG had a game riddled with mistakes throwing 3 interceptions in a 27-24 defeat.
With 16 transfers out, and 14 transfers in, we have a new look Cincinnati led by transfer QB Emory Jones. While he can be a dynamic playmaker, Jones has been up and down throughout this season. Jones looked good against Eastern Kentucky and Pittsburgh, but had 18 completions on 34 attempts with two interceptions in a loss to Miami (OH).
Oklahoma has been absolutely rolling with an average winning margin of 46.3 points. Oklahoma is a bully against weaker teams, and with Cincinnati ranking 44 in total defense, I believe Oklahoma will continue to churn out a great offensive performance.
Players to watch in this game include Cincinnati’s #2 DT Dontay Corleone (7 tackles, 1 sack) and Oklahoma’s #8 QB Dillon Gabriel (905 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT).
Give me Boomer Sooner!
#22 UCLA Bruins (+5) @ #11 Utah Utes
My Pick: UCLA (+5)
This matchup will showcase two different styles between UCLA and Utah. UCLA freshman Dante Moore has been impressive, but can he maintain his production against a decent defense in Utah? If he can, I believe it will come in the air as Utah displays a tough defense to run against ranking 10th in rushing defense.
Chip Kelly will certainly put on a show Saturday as well. Heralded as an offensive guru, Kelly will roll out his version of an option offense. UCLA likes to use a lot of misdirection to stress perimeter defenders and create leverage on the edge. It will be interesting to see UCLA’s rushing attack take on the Utah defense. UCLA ranks 3rd nationally on the ground, and leads the country with 7.44 yards/rush.
The biggest story line for the Utes is the QB position. Is the time table for Cam Rising’s return still up in the air? Rising has been cleared for full practice since their home opener against Florida, but hasn’t seen the playing field. He is attempting to make a return after an ACL tear in the Rose Bowl last year.
Whether Utah brings Cam Rising back, or they stick with backup Nate Johnson, their game plan will be to control the pace of the game. Utah’s average time of possession per game is 34:50. If they can pull out the game, they will have to slow it down and play it at their pace.
I believe UCLA covers the spread and may win this one outright.
#3 Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears
My Pick: Texas (-14.5)
There is no argument that Texas did not look as impressive against Wyoming, tied with the Cowboys going into the 4th quarter of last week’s game. I believe Texas’ poor performance could be attributed to a hangover from their week two win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. This wake up call will help Texas refocus this week as they head into Big 12 conference play.
Baylor’s Blake Shapen has been injured as well, and backup Sawyer Robertson has not looked great. Robertson has a total QBR of 34.5 good for 109th in the country, and will get the start again this Saturday.
Texas state moved the ball easily against Baylor’s defense, and Texas will likely do the same. This should be easy work for Longhorn QB Quinn Ewers and company. Hook ‘em!
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes @ #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
My Pick: Notre Dame (+3)
Notre Dame welcomes in Ohio State this Saturday night. This game will look nothing like last year’s matchup where Notre dame tried to maintain ball control, and play defense. The Fighting Irish’ leading rusher against Ohio State in 2022 only had 28 yards and they still managed to keep the game within two scores. Sam Hartman has rejuvenated this Notre dame offense and has been lighting it up through the air. Another player to keep an eye on is Notre Dame RB Audric Estime as he has cemented himself as one of the best running backs in the country clocking 8.3 yards/attempt.
Ohio State had been quiet the first couple weeks of the season before beating down Western Kentucky 63-10 in week 3. I think Ohio State’s offense will cool off again against the Notre Dame defense.
UCF Knights @ Kansas State Wildcats
My Pick: UCF (+7)
UCF will trot out backup QB Timmy McClain for the second time in relief for injured starter John Rhys Plumlee. In his first game action since 2021, McClain looked great making sound decisions in the passing game and recording zero making turnovers.
Timmy’s running ability looked decisive without abandoning his options down the field. Often he would move within the pocket to give his receivers time to create separation.
The Knights defense also showed up in week three, holding Villanova (a team that averaged more than 30 points/game) to just 14. Tre’Mon Morris-Brash, Josh Celiscar, and Lee Hunter all had standout plays notching 9 solo tackles, 1 sack, and 2 tackles for a loss collectively. Another player to keep an eye on in the defensive front is John walker. As the highest rated recruit in his class, Walker disrupted the line of scrimmage. Pro Football Focus ranks John Walker the second rated Defensive Tackle in college football. Nikai Martinez also showed out with an absolutely athletic interception on the sideline. The Apopka native has looked great in open-field coverage and continues to be an impact player on defense.
The Kansas State Wildcats do possess experience in the Big 12 conference, and are reigning Big 12 champions. However, the Wildcats lost a lot more than just a game in Missouri as they come out missing key starters. Star linebacker Daniel Green is out for the remainder of the season, and UCF will look to exploit freshman backup Austin Romaine. Keep an eye on the center of the field. Running Back Treshaun Ward is doubtful, and Quarterback Will Howard is questionable to play for Kansas State Saturday night.
Give me the Knights to cover, Charge On!
And, if you are looking for some Week 4 sleeper picks, look no further
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