BIG week in the Big 12
In week five #PicksAllKnight went 2-3, and we find ourselves sitting at 17-12-1 on the season. If you like my picks and analysis, please subscribe to the Sons of UCF on X (Twitter) and YouTube! You can find the rest of my content on X (Twitter) at _AllKnight_ and on http://SonsofUCF.com!
Week 5 Recap:
#10 Utah Utes @ #19 Oregon State Beavers
Wager: Utah (+1).
Final: Oregon State 21, Utah 7.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ BYU Cougars
Wager: Cincinnati (+3).
Final: BYU 35, Cincinnati 27.
#22 Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats
Wager: Kentucky (-2).
Final: Kentucky 33, Florida 14.
Baylor Bears @ UCF Knights
Wager: UCF (-11.5).
Final: Baylor 36, UCF 35.
Iowa State Cyclones @ #14 Oklahoma Sooners
Wager: Oklahoma (-20).
Final: Oklahoma 50, Iowa State 20.
Making Moves Picks Records
Week 5: 2-3 (40%)
Season: 17-12-1 (58.6%)
Week 5: 3-3 (50%)
Season: 27-28 (49.1%)
Week 5: 12-11-2 (52.2%)
Season: 52-40-5 (56.5%)
Week 5 Official Picks
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Friday 10/6, 7:30 PM, ESPN
My Pick: Kansas State (-10.5)
Kansas State travels to Boone Pickens Stadium for a Friday night showdown with Oklahoma State. Kansas State’s offense, led by Senior QB Will Howard, is pretty darn good. The Wildcats are 15th in the country with 482 yards of offense per game, and have scored 42 points or more in all of their games but one this season. Will Howard has thrown for at least 250 yards in each game, and lines up next to Sophomore running back , DJ Giddens who leads the Wildcats in rushing yards, and averages 6.4 yards per rush. The Kansas State offense is no doubt potent, and very balanced in its attack. Oklahoma State’s defense is 74th in the country, allowing at least 370 yards per game. I believe Oklahoma State’s defense will struggle to help keep them in the game. Their offense only scores 22 points per game won’t be able to carry that much of the workload. What’s the saying, “If you have two starting quarterbacks, you have no starting quarterbacks?” Oklahoma State has had three QBs take meaningful snaps as they have struggled to settle on a starter. Give me the Wildcats minus 10 and the hook.
#12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. #3 Texas Longhorns
Saturday 10/7, 12:00 PM, ABC
My Pick: Total Points Over 60.
Is it the Red River Rivalry..? Shootout? or Showdown… Whatever you choose to call it, this game will be a lot of fun. Both Oklahoma and Texas took care of business last week amid some thoughts one of them may get caught looking ahead to this week’s ranked matchup. Oklahoma Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel has 15 TDs, 2 INTs, and a completion percentage of 75.2% on the season. The Sooners spread the ball around well with 6 players having 10 or more receptions on the season. Oklahoma’s running game has been effective as well averaging 4.0 yards per rush on the season. The Texas Longhorns will look to slow down this high-powered Oklahoma offense with the help of one of the best defensive fronts in the country. They apply pressure to the QB on 37% of plays which results in off-target throws at a rate of 18% and an average completion percentage of just 53.5%. Dillon Gabriel has not faced a pass rush of this caliber yet this season, and will often face pressure. It will be on him to remain poised, and find receivers down the field. All in all, this series has averaged 78.3 total points per game in the last 6 meetings. Given the explosiveness on offense and the nature of this rivalry, I’ll take the total points over 60.
Maryland Terrapins @ #4 Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday 10/7, 12:00 PM, Fox
My Pick: Maryland (+17.5)
Maryland has not been competitive against Ohio State in Columbus their last few meetings. The point totals for each team in those three games combined? Ohio State 201, Maryland 45. They failed to cover the spread in all of those games and have not won a game against the Buckeyes since joining the Big Ten conference in 2014. In fact, this Terrapin team is 3-13 against the spread as road underdogs under head coach Mike Locksley. However, I think Maryland can turn this around. The Terrapins have been rolling as of recently, and are currently riding a 7 game winning streak straight up, and 5-2 against the spread. Maryland’s offense has been better this season as QB Taulia Tagovailoa averaging 38.6 points per game. Ohio State has had some growing pains replacing first round draft pick CJ Stroud, but has since named Kyle McCord the starter moving forward. Maryland’s defense only allows 35.3% conversion on 3rd down, 13.2 points per game. The stats may not look great for Maryland, but I have a good feeling about this pick and believe they can hang around enough to cover the 17.5. Give me the Terps plus the points.
#11 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday 10/7, 3:30 PM, CBS
My Pick: Alabama (-2.5)
The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to College Station this weekend to take on the Texas A&M Aggies. There is a lot on the line for both programs. For Alabama, two losses before the first weekend of October is over would be a disaster. This is a game that can put them back in the contender conversation for national championship aspirations. For Texas A&M, this is an opportunity to take hold of the SEC West, and most likely, a spot in the SEC championship game. The Aggies have a great defense posting the best sack rate in the country (14.8%), and the second most tackles for a loss in the country (9.8 per game). The position of concern for Texas A&M’s is their secondary. Miami was able to exploit this in week two posting 17.8 yards per completion on 21 receptions. Jalen Milroe will have to use his athleticism to avoid the pass rush, and be accurate passing down field. Roll Tide!
UCF Knights @ Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday 10/7, 4:00 PM, Fox
My Pick: Kansas (-3)
UCF heads to Lawrence, Kansas seeking their first conference win after an absolute meltdown at home against Baylor. Kansas backup QB Jason Bean will likely get the start in place of Jalon Daniels. Bean should make a smooth transition as he played in 6 games last season and is comfortable running this offense. We believe UCF may see the return of starting QB John Rhys Plumlee, after a leg injury in week two against Boise State. The opening line favored Kansas by 2.5 points, moved to favor Kansas by 3 points, and then all the way back to favoring UCF by 2 points. I however, don’t believe JRP will be 100% and this is a move to give the offense a little spark after they fizzled out last week. UCF averages 1.8 turnovers per game and will need to protect the football against a Kansas team that is top 25 in turnover margin. If this turns to an emotional game, and a UCF team that is ranked 89th in penalty yards per game becomes frustrated, this game could slip away. I feel after a disappointing loss at home last week, UCF struggles on the road in Lawrence and comes out with their third loss of the season.
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