Can the Knights secure a bid for March Madness?
UCF men’s basketball has lost back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma State. The question is, what does it mean for the Knights’ NCAATournament chances? As of now, they are still in solid shape.
The NCAA uses the quadrant system, which is organized by game location and the opponent’s NET ranking, based on the quality of wins and losses.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses is important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.
Using these metrics, the Knights measure up very well. UCF compares favorably against the rest of the bubble when it comes to key metrics the committee looks at, including KPI, Quad 1 and Quad 2 records, and Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which compares the number of wins a team has against its schedule relative to how an average bubble team would fare against that same schedule.
Here is a look at some teams presumed to be at or near the bubble. Of these teams, 10 will make the NCAA Tournament, assuming there is not a team that steals a bid by unexpectedly winning their conference tournament.
| Team | Net | KPI | Quad 1 Wins | Quad 1/2 Wins | Net SOS | WAB | Strength of Resume |
| UCF | 48 | 25 | 4-5 | 10-8 | 57 | 33rd (+2.13) | 35th |
| Missouri | 59 | 46 | 5-6 | 10-10 | 48 | 37th (1.88) | 32rd |
| Texas A&M | 43 | 57 | 4-6 | 8-10 | 58 | 41st (+1.49) | 37th |
| SMU | 37 | 35 | 4-8 | 7-10 | 59 | 44th (+0.92) | 44th |
| UCLA | 36 | 44 | 4-8 | 10-10 | 35 | 32nd (+2.24) | 34th |
| Santa Clara | 41 | 41 | 1-5 | 7-6 | 86 | 43rd (+1.38) | 42nd |
| TCU | 42 | 38 | 5-6 | 10-8 | 44 | 36th (+1.97) | 38th |
| Ohio State | 34 | 51 | 2-10 | 8-11 | 22 | 39th (+1.53) | 40th |
| New Mexico | 44 | 40 | 2-5 | 8-6 | 93 | 46th (+0.53) | 49th |
| VCU | 46 | 43 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 100 | 45th (+0.61) | 46th |
| Indiana | 40 | 66 | 2-11 | 4-12 | 30 | 51st (+0.04) | 48th |
| Auburn | 39 | 45 | 5-11 | 7-13 | 3 | 47th (+0.51) | 45th |
| Va Tech | 55 | 43 | 2-9 | 8-10 | 64 | 49th (+0.20) | 51st |
| San Diego St | 47 | 48 | 2-5 | 7-9 | 77 | 56th (-0.75) | 66th |
| Cincinnati | 45 | 52 | 3-10 | 8-12 | 36 | 58th (-0.82) | 57th |
| Seton Hall | 52 | 60 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 80 | 55th (-0.47) | 50th |
Tuesday vs Oklahoma State was UCF ‘s first Quad 3 loss of the season, as the Cowboys are a borderline Quad 2 or 3 home loss. While not ideal, in comparison to fellow Big 12 teams, TCU has quad 3 and 4 losses, and Cincinnati has a Quad 4 loss. Auburn, New Mexico, San Diego State, and Virginia Tech all have a Quad 3 loss; Santa Clara has a Quad 4 loss, and Seton Hall has two Quad 3 losses.
The Knights’ Friday night game at West Virginia is a Quad 1 game, which presents another opportunity to secure a highly valued win.
Every Bracketologist in the country (which is over 100 different people/sites) has the Knights easily in as an 8 or 9 seed, with a couple of outliers at a 10 seed. The wins against Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU, as well as wins at BYU and at Texas A&M, are carrying them into the field.
What the Knights need is a win at West Virginia or a game at the Big 12 Tournament next week to avoid being in conversation for First 4 in Dayton.
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