Welcome to America’s Conference

A conference traditionally exploding with offensive firepower and defensive uncertainty finally bids farewell to Texas and Oklahoma. In 2023, G5 Kings UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston joined the Big 12 along with BYU. While none finished more than 6-6, and only UCF went to play in a bowl game, there were still shining moments to show that these teams have staying power. In 2024, Brett Yormark kept the Big 12 “open for business” and added what many call the four corner schools. This year, the Big 12 will mix in some old school with Utah and Kyle Whittingham, while also adding some flavor, flair, and controversy with Colorado and Primetime. Arizona will also join the fold after finishing 10-3 in 2023. Arizona did the Big 12 a favor during bowl season, sending Oklahoma to the SEC with a 38-24 loss. Oh, and there’s Arizona State too.

Half of the Big 12 teams have conference title odds (+1400) or better with Utah holding a slight edge as favorite. This is anyone’s conference! Will a newcomer emerge supreme in the Big 12, or will the Hateful 8 continue to run things in 2024? Here are some of my best bets on regular season win totals.

BYU: Over 4.5 Wins – Cougars on the Prowl

For years we quietly asked, “Is BYU a Power Five team in disguise?”  After joining the Big 12 in 2023, those questions may still be floating around. After a strong 3-0 non-conference start, BYU struggled going 2-7 against Big 12 opponents. The Cougars will look to get the ball moving on the offensive side after finishing 118th in total offense in 2023. It starts with the quarterback, and currently, there is a toe-to-toe battle between transfer Gerry Bohanon and incumbent Jake Retzlaff. While Retzlaff offers a little bit of stability after taking over for Kedon Slovis in 2023, he is 0-4 at BYU as their signal caller. Bohanon is a big, physical QB with a ton of playing experience. Bohanon led the Baylor Bears to a Big 12 conference title in 2021, before transferring to USF and ultimately to BYU. Their schedule is favorable, with the tougher slate against Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all being played in Provo. This will be a huge advantage to the Cougars. They not only have an altitude advantage, but a devoted fan base that brings it any given Saturday. The Big 12 will also now have one of the best rivalries in college football: The Holy War. This rivalry game will be BYU’s toughest matchup in 2024, as the Cougars will be traveling to Utah. Just like any rivalry game, throw out the record books. BYU won its last matchup against Utah in 2021. This team’s hard-nosed play and home-field advantage should be enough to get them to 5 wins.

Stat to Watch: 

BYU was undefeated as a favorite last season. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they were only favored 3 times. If BYU can mesh returning and transfer talent, and pull off a couple of upsets at home, we should reach 5 wins at least. BYU’s 2024 non-conference schedule consists of Southern Illinois, SMU, and Wyoming. If the Cougars can start conference play at 2-1 or better, I feel good about this prediction.

West Virginia:  Over 6.5 Wins – Can the Mountaineers Climb to Success?

West Virginia was arguably the Big 12’s biggest surprise in 2023. They crushed their preseason predictions with an 9-4 campaign and a 30-10 win over UNC in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Neal Brown has finally assembled a roster with talent and depth. QB Garrett Greene is athletic in the backfield (avg 6.43 yds/carry) and back for his senior season. Where he looks to improve is in the air, and the Mountaineers did not hesitate to get Greene help in the receiver room. The transfer additions of Senior WR Justin Robinson from Mississippi State, and Junior WR Jaden Bray from Oklahoma State should help add experience to a room that otherwise would have just two other upperclassmen.

Stat to Watch

Can West Virginia lean on the run game? West Virginia truly has a three-headed monster in the backfield. West Virginia’s 2023 rushing leaders RB Jaheim White (842 yards), RB CJ Donaldson Jr (798 yards), and QB Garrett Greene (772 yards) all return this season and look to get the ball going on the ground. 9 of West Virginia’s 12 opponents ranked 54th or worse in Rushing Defense last season. This may be the key to getting the Mountaineers over 6.5 wins. 

UCF: Over 7.5 Wins – Can the Knights Improve the Run Defense?

UCF’s jump to the Big 12 proved to have its challenges. In 2023, the Knights often had strong starts, but let games slip away as attrition set in, and lack of depth became an issue. Former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson will lead the Knights to start the 2024 season and run Malzahn’s offense. KJ holds records at Arkansas for passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage. He will look to make an impact at UCF in his grad transfer year. While the addition of KJ Jefferson has highlighted UCF’s transfer class, the Knights also look to fill many key roles at O-line, WR, LB, and DB. UCF should be able to notch a couple of wins off the top against New Hampshire and Sam Houston. In my opinion, the entire season rides on Week 3 against TCU. It’s a primetime game on Fox (UCF’s last major network primetime slot: 11/17/2018 at home against Cincinnati), in Fort Worth, all to start conference play. If UCF can leave Fort Worth with a win, this will give the Knights momentum going into the following week when they host Deion Sanders and Colorado. If the Knights start conference play with a loss, it may not be pretty come November, and may not be pretty for this prediction.

Stat to Watch

This entire pick relies on whether or not the UCF rushing defense can improve. The Knights ranked 122nd in rushing defense allowing 210.2 yds/game against Big 12 opponents. The Knights have added many transfers to the defense including Edge Nyjalik Kelly, and LB Ethan Barr. Look for the Knights to hold opponents to at least an average of 150 yds/game. Additionally, 3 of UCF’s losses in 2023 came as one-score losses. UCF is 6-6 in one-score games in the last two years.

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